But I’m sure we can answer, with some concentration and collecting all the reports and rumors:
First: Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty kicks thing off with a report that says the next iPhone goes into production in August. She figures that could mean a late September launch, and so she’s cut back on Q3 estimates for the existing iPhone models, because everyone will be consumed with the shiny newness.
Second: For much of the spring, the reporters who cover Apple (AAPL) have been arguing among themselves about what to call the new iPhone they expect the company to introduce in September.
Some call it the iPhone 5, to match the iOS 5 operating system Apple unveiled to developers three weeks ago.
Third: Some, anticipating that the new device will be a speeded-up iPhone 4 rather than a major re-design, have been calling it the iPhone 4S, echoing the nomenclature Apple used two years ago when it introduced the iPhone 3GS.
Fifth: In a note issued early Monday, Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitmore is telling clients to expect both — an iPhone 5 and an iPhone 4S.
“With Nokia and RIMM struggling,” he writes, “the time is right for Apple to aggressively penetrate the mid range smart-phone market (i.e. $300-500 category) to dramatically expand its [total addressable market] and market share.”
According to a nice comparison made by 9to5mac:
The $349 price point Whitmore mentioned for the iPhone 4S ain’t exactly what we’d call inexpensive, especially compared to the sub-$200 Android cheapos, like the $150 Huawei Ascend contract-free smartphone.
A fairer comparison would be the 4.1-inch Motorola Triumph, an Android 2.2 smartphone arriving contract-free on the Virgin Mobile network for $300 later this month. So, if Motorola is able to put together a nice mid-to-high-range smartphone and sell it unlocked, Apple should be equally capable to tweak and polish up the current-generation iPhone 4, call it the iPhone 4S and sell it for about the same price as the Motorola handset.
There are lots of folks out there who prefer pay-as-you-go plans over lengthy contracts. Following the fall of Symbian, the mid-range prepaid market is up for grabs. With that in mind, it makes perfect sense for Apple to have a product to go after that segment. Conceivably, analysts in January 2011 that Apple didn’t want the iPhone to be “just for the richâ€.
